#179 - Substack Transition + Our Robotic Future

“On a 12-month average basis…Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak nearly three years ago falling from 1.67 million to 1.37 million now…Recessions have always followed a rollover in Housing Starts, and the only question is timing.” (Link)

The Coming Demographic Crisis and the Handoff to Robots

The article The Handoff to Bots captivated my attention last week and makes a sobering argument: declining birthrates mean that robots will have to fill the gaps left by human labor. We are facing an unprecedented demographic collapse—one unlike any in human history. The idea that technology will seamlessly step in to maintain economic productivity is compelling, but it ignores deeper, existential questions about culture and social cohesion.

Charlie Munger’s wisdom—“Invert, always invert”—applies here. If we ask what it would take to reverse declining birthrates, the answer is nothing short of a radical shift in cultural values. Today’s developed world prioritizes individualism, convenience, and self-actualization over family-building. Historically, high birthrates have been tied to religious and cultural norms that elevate self-sacrifice, duty, and community over personal comfort. Israel, the only developed nation with a birthrate above replacement levels, is a case in point—its deeply ingrained religious and national identity fuels its population growth.

But what would actually trigger a large-scale reversion to family-centric values? History provides an unsettling answer: large-scale war. Post-WWII, the United States saw a historic baby boom, driven by a newfound appreciation for life, country, and faith. War has a way of clarifying priorities. While no one wants such a catastrophe, we must also acknowledge that societies are not currently preparing for the economic and social consequences of population decline. Can robots fill the labor void? Perhaps. But can they bridge the cultural chasm that a shrinking human population will leave behind? Highly unlikely.

Paul Graham on Wealth Creation: The Power of Capitalism and Creativity

Paul Graham’s recent essay provides a refreshing perspective on wealth creation today: by starting businesses and investing wisely. He argues that wealth is no longer primarily accumulated through inheritance or slow corporate climbing—it’s built by creating value, solving problems, and taking calculated risks.

This is a celebration of capitalism at its best. Entrepreneurship is no longer a game reserved for elites with connections; it’s increasingly accessible to those with insight, ambition, and an appetite for risk. In a world where anyone with an internet connection can build a business, launch a startup, or invest intelligently, creativity has become the most valuable currency.

The takeaway? If you want to build real wealth, don’t wait for permission. Start something. Solve a problem. Own something that grows. The modern economy rewards those who create and build, and there’s never been a better time to get in the game.

More to come soon. Let’s keep building.

Tech Corner

Latest Lux Capital Investor Later (Link)

Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner (Link)

How People Get Rich - Paul Graham (Link)

TSMC Founder Morris Chang on Acquired Podcast (Link)

Investor’s Corner

Bill Ackman is proposing to create a holdco out of Howard Hughes Holdings (Link)

Bill Ackman on position in UBER 0.00%↑ (Link)

A list of lessons learned from small business acquisitions (h/t Xavier Helgeson - Link)

The mindset of a contrarian investor – Anthony Bolton (Link)

6th Annual Applied Value Investing Stock Pitch Challenge - Columbia Business School Heilbrunn Center for Dodd & Graham Investing (Link)

The Sports Investment Revolution: From Ownership to Ecosystem | Global Alts Miami 2025 (Link)

Paul Singer | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management (Link)

The Coffee Can Portfolio (Oldie, but Goodie - Link)

Allan Mecham’s 2013 Fund Letter for Arlington Value (Link)

Alternatives to Bloomberg Data Terminals (h/t @realLigerCub - Link)

Politics Corner

Balaji on republics vs. empires (X.com)

The Handoff to Bots - The Technium (Link)