#191 - Are Demographics Destiny?

“The US manufacturing cycle is gaining traction. With nearly 200 factory completions since mid-2023 and a $590 billion pipeline led by $5 billion-plus megaprojects, advanced manufacturing is set to be a durable growth engine for the US economy…” - Apollo Global

Demographics Aren’t Destiny — They’re the Map of Where We’ve Been — A reflection on my hometown

In the grand parade of cities, one hears often that “demographics are destiny.” But I would suggest that demographics are less destiny than memory—the scorecard of past choices, the echo of commitments, and the inventory of possibility. Destiny comes not from numbers alone, but from what we choose to become in spite of them. 

As Peter Thiel would say, I am neither an optimist or a pessimist - I am a realist. 

Optimists believe good things happen, inevitably. 

Pessimists believe bad things happen, inevitably. 

Realists take action. 

Let us consider Rocky Mount, NC — a small city uniquely located on the crossroads of I-95 and I-64/I-87, one of the rare small cities in America where the North-South artery of the Eastern Seaboard meets a gateway to the entire Mid-Atlantic and beyond. We live in a place positioned not at the edge of civilization, but at a hinge point of opportunity. And yet, we are not a “boomtown.” We are, likewise, not a ghost town. We are something else - we are a resilient town.

For decades, Rocky Mount has weathered mill closures, recessions, natural disasters, and the quiet draining effect of urban migration. And yet our population has not collapsed. It has held. Steady. Stable. Rooted.

Stability, in an age of constant flux, is not stagnation but survival. It is the city’s way of stating “We have been tested — and we remain.”

What do demographics tell us? They tell us we are a city of workers, families, dreamers, and builders. They tell us where people have chosen to stay, where newcomers have hesitated, where the economy has rewarded some and not yet others. Demographics are not prophecies — they are a mirror of the choices we have already made.

If demographics were truly destiny, then Pittsburgh would still be a city of steel smoke and soot. Instead, it reinvented itself as a hub of robotics, medicine, and technology. 

If stability meant inertia, Greenville, South Carolina would never have experienced the transformation from a declining textile town into one of the Southeast’s most celebrated mid-sized success stories.

What changed in those places was not the past — it was the decision to outgrow it.

Demographics reveal the soil — destiny is what we choose to plant next.

So what of Rocky Mount? We sit at the crossing of commerce. We are within one day’s trucking distance of 70% of the U.S. population. Our housing is affordable when so many cities are choking on their own costs. We have a growing investment in downtown revitalization, logistics, advanced manufacturing, solar energy, culinary culture, and the arts. We are increasingly telling our own story again, not waiting for someone else to explain us.

To move forward, we must choose:

✅ To leverage our geographic advantage rather than merely admire it.

✅ To retain young talent not by pleading with them to stay, but by building something they want to belong to.

✅ To attract investment by becoming a city whose momentum comes from within and beckons those outside to join in.

✅ To tell a story not about what left us, but about what is coming.

This does not mean denying our history, our trajectory, our demographics. 

For a long while, Rocky Mount has stood firm — now we must step forward.

GK Chesterton once quipped: “We are perishing for want of wonder, not for want of wonders.”

Rocky Mount is a small town of small wonders — location, grit, resilience, a reawakening downtown, and people who still greet you by name. 

Demographics tell us where we’ve been. Destiny is determined by what we decide to do next.

We were once the city on the rise, and we can be again. Rocky Mount, now is the time to choose a brighter future, and believe that our next chapter can be larger than our last.

PS - Thank you to Ben Tobin at Triangle Business Journal who challenged me recently to think about demographics of our region. Ben, this is my slightly more thought-out response.

PPS - Yes, our city has short term financial challenges. This too shall pass. Ask not what your city can do for you, but what you can do for your city.

Investor Corner

Howard Hughes Holdings (NYSE: $HHH) 2025 Shareholder Meeting - Link

Margin debt is at all time highs - Link

AI Debt reflects a record 14% of Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index - Link

Harry Kupperman exposes flaws to AI Boom - Link

The AI bubble has spawned an energy bubble where zero-revenue companies have ballooned to over $45 billion in collective value based on hopes that tech companies will eventually buy their non-existent power. - Link

RCLCO’s 2025 CRE C Suite Outlook - Link

Howard Marks selling his remaining Oaktree stake - top ticking it again? Link

Citadel’s Griffin Calls Rush to Gold as Safer Asset ‘Concerning’ (full interview) - Link

39 of the top 50 US metros have seen month-over-month housing price declines for the first time in history, per Redfin. - Link

Technology Corner

The State of AI Report - Link

China Is Winning the Race for AI Robots - Link

Is the AI boom waning? Two Charts - Link

MIT just built an AI that can rewrite its own code to get smarter. - Link

Social media time is SHRINKING for the first time in HISTORY, and young people are leading the pullback. Link

Politics, Philosophy, Theology Corner

For how long can China play the “rare earths card”? - Link

Convergence between US And China’s foreign policy initiatives - Link

The US just posted a massive surplus of +$198 Billion for the month of September. Link

Niall Ferguson, Victor Davis Hanson and Stephen Kotkin: Three Historians debate the era of Trump - Link